Continuous Tribulations & Emerging Risks Facing Ethnic Rohingya in Myanmar and Bangladesh (Updated to Sep 2025)

Abstract

Focus	Scope
Populations	~1.15M Rohingya plus 150K new arrivals in 33 camps in Cox’s Bazar Bangladesh; ongoing displacement in Myanmar
Core risks	Statelessness, restricted movement, health/education barriers, renewed conflict, funding collapse
Methods	Mixed methods (interviews, observation and document review)
Contribution	Synthesizes 2025 conflict/funding updates with long-run drivers

The Myanmar is ethnic Rohingya remain one of the world’s most persecuted minorities. This paper examines enduring drivers (citizenship denial, discrimination, violence) and 2025 developments: escalating conflict in Rakhine State, mass displacement across Myanmar, and severe aid shortfalls threatening food security in Bangladesh camps.

Introduction

Key fact (Bangladesh)	Latest status
Camps	33 camps in Cox’s Bazar + Bhasan Char
Registered population	1,148,529 (UNHCR, 31 Jul 2025 plus new arrivals 150K)
Funding risk	WFP warns food assistance may end by late Nov 2025 without new funds

Rohingya in Bangladesh live almost entirely on humanitarian assistance. UNHCR reports 33 camps hosting ~1.15M refugees as of 31 July 2025, plus new arrivals 150K. WFP warns its funding for monthly food and nutrition assistance could run out by End-November 2025, which would sharply worsen hunger and protection risks.

Methodology

Source Type	Description
Interviews	Community elites, teachers, volunteers, health workers, NGO staff
Observation	Waste sites, WASH facilities, mobility constraints
Document review	UN/INGO reports, academic literature, media analyses

In this article I applied a mixed-methods design, triangulating interviews/observations with recent humanitarian dashboards (UNHCR/OCHA) and rights reporting to capture both chronic and emergent risks.

Framework of the Research

Dimension	Variables	Theoretical lens
Citizenship & law	1982 Act, documentation, movement	Human rights, political sociology
Education	Access, quality, language, gender	Social justice, inclusive education
Health	Service access, outbreaks, MHPSS	Public health, trauma
Violence & displacement	Conflict events, arson, conscription	Atrocity prevention, IHL
Camps & environment	WASH, waste, fires, funding	Humanitarian systems, resilience

Interlinkages among legal exclusion, conflict and camp-level deprivations reproduce vulnerability across generations.

Literature Review

Theme	Representative sources
Statelessness & 1982 law	Haque 2017; BROUK 2014
Genocide/ethnic cleansing debates	Mohajan 2018; USHMM 2022
Education exclusion	Al Jazeera 2018; academic mappings
Protracted displacement	HRW 2000; UNHCR explainer 2023

The literature converges on citizenship denial as a root cause, with repeated violence cycles (1978–2017–present) deepening dispossession.

Problem Statement

Problem	Consequence
Denationalization	Statelessness, restricted movement
Recurrent violence	Mass displacement, trauma
Aid dependence + funding shocks	Food insecurity, negative coping
WASH & space constraints	Disease burden, fires
Education barriers	“Lost generation” risks

These drivers sustain a chronic emergency now aggravated by 2024–2025 conflict dynamics in Rakhine and a looming food pipeline break in Bangladesh.

Discussion

Topic	2025 snapshot
Myanmar conflict	Nationwide escalation; Rakhine fighting, arson and mass displacement including Rohingya areas
Bangladesh camps	Managed services under severe budget stress; recurrent fires; protection risks

OCHA notes nearly 3.5M people displaced inside Myanmar amid intensified hostilities since late-2023; Rakhine incidents (including widespread burning in Buthidaung in May 2024) have further imperiled Rohingya. Meanwhile, Bangladesh camps face repeated fire hazards and acute funding shortages.

The Problem of Citizenship of the Ethnic Rohingya in Myanmar

Milestone	Effect on Rohingya
1948–62	Earlier recognition pathways; national registration cards issued
1962–80s	Military rule tightens documentation; rising exclusion
1982 Citizenship Law	Formalized denationalization; entrenched statelessness
2012–2017	Segregation, ethnic cleansing, violence, mass expulsions
2024–2025	Conflict surge further restricts movement/safety

The 1982 law institutionalized statelessness and exclusion from rights and protections, setting conditions for repeated displacement and abuse.

Barriers to Education for Rohingya in Myanmar

Barrier	Illustration
Status-based exclusion	Denied access/segregation since 2012 riots
Infrastructure & language	Limited facilities; language hurdles
Security & mobility	Curfews, checkpoints, renewed fighting
Gender & poverty	Early marriage, household labor, costs

Evidence shows systemic exclusion and a high risk of a “lost generation” absent inclusive, safe schooling.

Rohingya Health Care Problems in Myanmar

Constraint	Impact
Restricted movement & documentation	Delayed/denied care
Service scarcity in Rakhine	Poor coverage, referrals blocked
Conflict disruptions	Facility closures, staff flight
Stigma/discrimination	Avoidance of care; worse outcomes

Conflict since late-2023 has further impeded access to already limited services across Rakhine.

Rohingya Facing Genocide in Myanmar (Context & 2024–2025 updates)

Episode	Characteristics
1978, 1991–92	Mass expulsions to Bangladesh
2012–2017	Segregation; 2017 “clearance” leading to more than 700k+ flight
May 2024 (Rakhine)	Satellite-documented large-scale burning in Buthidaung following intensified fighting

International documentation describes crimes against humanity; satellite analyses highlight extensive burn patterns in 2024, compounding historical persecution.

Extreme Challenges of Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh (1978–2017…to 2025)

Challenge	2017–2025 situation
Overcrowding	~1.15M people in dense sites; limited land and plus 150k new arrivals
Food security	Severe funding shortfalls; WFP warns pipelines could end by late Nov 2025
Fires & hazards	Recurrent large fires; EPR fire-mitigation strategy (2025–2026)
Protection & movement	Restricted formal livelihoods; rising negative coping if rations cut
Education/health	Service coverage constrained by budgets & scale

UNHCR confirms 33 camps with ~1.15M refugees; ISCG and partners continue fire risk planning; WFP warns of imminent pipeline breaks absent urgent funding.

Recommendations

Actor	Priority Action
Govt. of Myanmar & de facto controllers	Guarantee civilian protection, cease abuses, enable unfettered humanitarian access
International community	Urgently fund food pipeline (Q4 2025–Q1 2026), sustain multisector JRP 2025
Bangladesh & partners	Scale fire-risk mitigation; maintain WASH/health; expand safe learning
Legal/advocacy coalitions	Pursue accountability; support documentation and rights-restoration pathways
Camp governance & CBOs	Community-led WASH, youth engagement, safe waste management, early-warning

Actions prioritize life-saving assistance now, while advancing medium-term dignity and rights.

2025 Situation Snapshot

Area	Current (as of Sep 2025)
Bangladesh camps	33 camps; 1,148,529 refugees (UNHCR, 31 Jul 2025) and 150K new arrivals.
Food pipeline	WFP warns operations could cease by end-Nov 2025 without urgent $; immediate funding needed
Myanmar conflict	~3.5M IDPs nationwide; Rakhine violence includes large-scale burning in 2024; access severely constrained

Conclusion

Takeaway	Implication
Structural exclusion + active conflict	Drives ongoing displacement and acute harm
Camps underfunded	Risk of hunger spike from late 2025
Multi-level response	Immediate funding + protection + legal pathways needed

Without immediate funding and sustained protection, conditions will deteriorate sharply in late-2025—particularly food security—while conflict inside Myanmar keeps Rohingya at extreme risk.

References

Haque (2017). Rohingya Ethnic Muslim Minority and the 1982 Citizenship Law in Burma. ResearchGate.
BROUK (2014). Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law and Rohingya.
HRW (2000). Burmese Refugees in Bangladesh: Still No Durable Solution.
Al Jazeera (2018). Rohingya facing ‘lost generation’.
USHMM (2022). Atrocities Against Burma’s Rohingya.
Mohajan (2018). Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar are Victim of Genocide.
UNHCR USA (2023). Rohingya Refugee Crisis Explained.
Ahmad (2019). Mapping the Peer-reviewed Literature.
UNHCR Bangladesh (accessed Sep 2025): Country page & dashboard (33 camps; 1,148,529 as of 31 Jul 2025).
OCHA/ReliefWeb (2025): Humanitarian update & 2025 HNRP (≈3.5M IDPs; needs across Myanmar).
Dhaka Tribune (6 Sep 2025): WFP warns Rohingya food aid may end by November.
ISCG/EPR (2025–2026): Fire Risk Mitigation Strategy (Cox’s Bazar). rohingyaresponse.org
BBC/Reuters/AP/HRW (2024): Rakhine/Buthidaung fires and abuses amid intensified conflict.

Data Sources & Reports

UNHCR Myanmar Situation Portal
Provides comprehensive data on displacement, humanitarian needs, and protection concerns in Myanmar and neighbouring countries. UNHCR Data Portal
Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) – Myanmar Conflict Events
Offers detailed datasets on political violence, civilian-targeting, and demonstration events in Myanmar, aiding in conflict analysis. Humanitarian Data Exchange
ACLED – Myanmar Conflict Dataset
Tracks and analyzes political violence and protest events across Myanmar, providing insights into the dynamics of the conflict. ACLED
International Crisis Group – Myanmar Conflict Map
Features an interactive dashboard mapping violent events and providing analytical reports on the conflict since the 2021 coup. IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Rohingya Response – Resources & Data
Hosts spatial and operational datasets, including camp boundaries, infrastructure footprints, and needs assessments in Cox’s Bazar. Rohingya Response
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) – Bangladesh Country Portal
Details the humanitarian situation of nearly one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, including camp conditions and response efforts. UNHCR Data Portal
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Provides disaggregated data on organized violence events in Myanmar, useful for conflict trend analysis. Humanitarian Data Exchange
ReliefWeb – Myanmar Conflict Reports
Offers reports and analyses on the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, highlighting humanitarian impacts and conflict dynamics. ReliefWeb

Appendix: Interviewee Categories (Anonymized for Security Reasons)

The following 20 individuals participated in this research through confidential interviews conducted between May–August 2025. Their identities have been anonymized to ensure their safety due to the sensitive situation in Myanmar and refugee camps in Bangladesh.

Category	Number of Interviews	Roles & Contributions (Anonymized)
Community Teachers & Leaders	5	Camp educators, religious teachers (madrasa and maktab), youth mentors, and community leaders working on literacy and awareness programs.
Activists & Human Rights Defenders	3	Youth activists, women advocates, and grassroots organizers promoting rights awareness, education access, and protection initiatives.
Political & Civil Society Figures	3	Local political analysts, civil society representatives, and refugee leaders engaged in policy dialogue and humanitarian coordination.
Health & WASH Workers	3	Clinic staff, paramedics, and WASH volunteers addressing hygiene, nutrition, and sanitation challenges in camps.
Humanitarian & NGO Staff	2	Field officers and protection staff from international and local NGOs operating in Rohingya response programs.
Historians & Cultural Advocates	2	Rohingya historians and researchers documenting displacement narratives, cultural heritage, and historical rights of Arakan.
Analysts & Researchers	2	Independent researchers and policy analysts contributing data and insights on migration, statelessness, and security risks.

All respondents provided informed consent for participation. Names and identifying details are withheld to maintain confidentiality and protect them amid ongoing conflict and rising threats in Myanmar.

About the Author
Mr. Kaiser Komor
(Undergraduate at OSUN Hubs, BRAC University; Graduate of RAR Institute)

Mr. Kaiser Komor is a dedicated Rohingya teacher, community volunteer, and change-maker committed to empowering youth through education and advocacy. He is a driving force in promoting literacy, preserving Rohingya cultural identity, and advancing social development initiatives. His work focuses on mentorship, community mobilization, and creating opportunities for marginalized groups to thrive.

Author Contact Information
Email: kaiserkomor758@gmail.com
Cell: +8801879-16 64 01